Do not forget the early heart color feast should be wary of hedge Bianwei – Anhui Channel – p-9c8996


Do not forget the early heart color feast be wary of hedging Bianwei – Anhui Channel – people.com.cn reporter Zhang Lijing – the tide of capital to raging like a storm. Whenever there is a big trend in the trend, the set will begin to be "uneasy". In the commodity futures market volatility in the market this year, due to the "fancy" variable hedging for speculation, some industry predators "choke water". Insiders revealed that in the field of non-ferrous metals, because of the trend of market becoming more and more obvious, many people are looking forward to the bull market. Some of the hedging positions that should have been short become bulls, and enterprise wind control suddenly sounded the alarm. In the eleven national day of China, the K-line of the London metal market is still affecting the investors of the colored market. Aaron Xixian during or after inflation, or 0.42% weeks. It’s over 20000 dollars. So far this year, non-ferrous metal news constantly, Shanghai "inspirational debut", since November last year, 80000 yuan a ton, the road now rose to 129920 yuan per ton, rose a total of 49920 yuan or 62.4% tons. During the period, the price of aluminum, zinc and nickel in the colored family also increased by more than 30%. Nonferrous Metals bull Pumianerlai, A shares not resigned to playing second fiddle. According to the China Securities Daily reporter statistics, since the end of January this year, the low flush smelting plate increase of 56% during the year, far outperforming the broader market; over the same period, the CSI 300 index rose 15.3%; flush coal mining sector rose to 35.2%; the steel sector rose 24.5%. From the stock point of view, since the end of January this year, rising nonferrous metals rose 83.4%; Tin shares rose 34.6% or 46.2%; germanium. In the medium term, since the adjustment of the market in July, the nonferrous metal sector has been continuously moving. Following the trend of Lian Yang in August 2nd 16, it launched a small rise in September 6th August 26th. Founder Securities in a research report on the two quarter Chihong said, one quarter of the company operating profit 80 million. The average price of zinc in the two quarter is 15119 yuan. The current price is from 17000 yuan to 18000 yuan per ton, if the average price in the second half is 17000 yuan, the profit in the second half is expected to reach 350 million yuan, and the performance will be greatly improved. Considering that the company enjoys the metal price elasticity and the reform expectation of state-owned enterprises, the "recommended" investment rating is maintained. Not only in China, the International Investment Bank continues to sing multi metal prices. Societe Generale is expected to average the tin price of $18500 per tonne in the fourth quarter of this year. "Tin prices are likely to rise to $20000 a ton by the end of the year," said Robin Bhar, director of the bank’s Metal Research Department. Under the big market, this year, the volume and turnover of Shanghai and Shanghai stannum climbed steadily. The head of a tin production company admitted that at the end of last year, the ton price of 80 thousand yuan was once despairing, and the price of 120 thousand yuan ton could not be imagined at that time. Now, it is the best price that many people want to buy. "The rise and speed of this round of rise and speed is far beyond the market expectations, some companies have stopped selling insurance, and even began to speculative bets of multiple quotations." Huadong a Futures Company brokerage business analyst Li Ming (a pseudonym) said, in the non-ferrous metal this year’s repeated rally, tin fared well so far rose more than 40%, the industry chain enterprises hedging plate into chaos, some typical positions should sell hedging into buying the backhand. In the nonferrous metals industry, especially in copper and aluminum industries, almost one hundred percent of the enterprises will see the futures market, but only a few companies strictly abide by the rules of hedging. This phenomenon is common in all commodities in the bulk of commodities. Many enterprises have a certain amount of speculation. In particular, in a clear trend of trend, there will be more business owners in speculative adventures. " A person in the industry. Do not forget the original intention of hedging become wary of bull market speculation when the capital market has become an indispensable force, no matter from the financial side or the information surface, traditional enterprises are weak. Professor Chang Qing, director of the center for futures and financial derivatives of China Agricultural University, told China Securities Daily reporters that it is necessary for enterprises to make hedging. This is the fundamental way to manage risks. A company that doesn’t guarantee business is impossible to make a hundred years old business. However, under the leveraged charm of the futures market, some enterprise hedging deviates from the original intention and is lost in the speculation. "The increase in tin price this year has not been expected by many people. There are all kinds of gossip in the market, and it also stimulates the nerves of tin practitioners. The position that was originally sold as a hedge became a speculating position. " Li Ming said. Li Ming told China Securities newspaper reporters that a large number of gold entry customers, especially industrial customers, will appear whenever there is a big trend in the market. As a result, because of the familiarity with the industry, they always think that their success in the market will be bigger. Second, these people are usually "no money", and a few hundred thousand, even millions of dollars, is common. "But these people are very special in their status. They are often the managers or direct managers of the enterprises. Their winning or losing is still the second. If they give up hedging or incomplete insurance in business decisions, they will turn to speculation and have great risks. Sometimes even the memory of life and death. " A "misfortune" copper enterprises boss painfully recalled that he had in a low price speculation buying copper. "When the price is less than $1920 a ton, I do not think it is possible to lower again, as large positions, market results Yindie for many days, and finally had to be a strong level. What I regret most is that the enterprises should have done spot selling and hedging, but the result is huge losses, and there are serious problems in the capital chain as well. "A lot of people do futures industry are lost in the fancy above, think they know the market very." He said. Coincidentally, a former Futures Company operating the Department of the "old futures" similar stories of Chinese Securities newspaper reporter: a few years ago, the heirs with 200 million yuan of funds accounts do futures, when he believes their own enterprises to manipulation emotion status in the industry, the results will soon be the venue the "smart money" on, now, "200 million yuan to bring shut the dogs up to beat them"; the heirs of the capital, pay the tuition fees, then vowed not to set foot in futures trading. Companies involved in capital market speculation led to huge loss of the risk of the story far Chinese 2004 meet the eye everywhere, Cao (Singapore) Limited by Share Ltd because of participation in oil futures speculation and a loss of $550 million, the domestic cotton prices this year, a loss of 600 million yuan in the cotton futures speculation, etc.. A senior market researcher said that part of the production enterprises misplaced in the multi market operation may be short-term speculation. However, as a natural and empty upstream company, the risk is not guaranteed, but the risk is risky. In non-ferrous metals and other commodity futures bull market, a few companies’ futures operations often lose their rationality, which is not related to the overoptimistic mentality and the atmosphere of fund speculation. "It’s always going to come, it’s always going to go!" SMM China tin industry exchange platform analysts believe that the current advantages of the tin market are weakening. Early, environmental factors, Burma smelter supply inflection point, easing the financial side, joint production, store goods dealers less depressed downstream on-demand procurement, inventory is low and other factors to help push the price of tin and tin plate; Shanghai small, easy money fueling. But after the rapid rise of the price, the funds are removed and the demand for the downstream industry is not improved. The price increases stimulate the supply. The final market price trend depends on the supply side and the demand improvement. "Natural shores" can’t be done by many listed companies, the head of the business department of the insurance business department confessed that the whole futures Department of the company has only one own person. The plan of hedging and self deployment is completed by one person, and the approval of the plan is quite arbitrary. "Say hello to the leader, you can go to draw money. The performance of the hedging department is examined separately from the results of the spot department. Futures operations are basically speculative and hedging. Li Ming believes that many companies do not understand the function of the hedging department, even regard it as an investment sector in pursuit of profit, which fundamentally distorts the function of hedging. "The earnings of some listed companies are even directly linked to bonuses. This has contributed to the wind of speculation. And some of the losses caused by futures speculation are often recorded in the financial statements on the head of the insurance. To solve this kind of problem, Li Ming indicated that there are three aspects of guarantee for the enterprise’s Hedging: from the decision-making to the implementation of the system guarantee; the research and audit of the hedging scheme; the monitoring system in the process, the responsibility to the person. But it is worth noting that Huang Liqiang, director of investment consulting department of Jinshi Futures Research Institute, doesn’t think all the reverse operations are pure speculation. In two common situations, a company that serves as a natural side can make more profits. One is the futures price is far from the spot, while the producer has the right of pricing. The production enterprise can buy products in the futures market and earn stable profits. "Usually the spot price and the futures market is stable, often because of irrational factors appear oversold, so futures prices are mostly return to the spot price direction, so this time the production enterprise profit long futures futures is positive." The second is that manufacturers expected future spot prices will rise, but for various reasons can not be a large stockpile, therefore buying in the futures market futures, will stock futures inventory replacement method. "This operation usually occurs in the far month contract, enterprises can cost less to stockpile. When the futures price rises later, the production enterprises make a profit on the end of the position. Of course, when the operation of the enterprise, not only to hedge risk, but increase the risk of exposure, if the enterprise expected error, the latter spot prices fell sharply, so enterprises not only in the spot on the face losses in the futures market will also suffer losses." Huang Liqiang pointed out. (commissioning editor Fan Xiaolin and Ma Lingling) 勿忘初心 有色盛宴须警惕“变味的套保”–安徽频道–人民网   □本报记者 张利静   资本潮来风起云涌。每当出现大级别的趋势行情,套保盘就开始“不安分”起来。   在今年商品期货市场大波动行情中,由于“自作聪明”地变套保为投机,一些产业大鳄“呛了水”。有业内人士透露,在有色金属领域,由于行情走向越来越明显,很多人对牛市充满了期待,一些原本应该做空的套保头寸眨眼之间变成多头,企业风控骤然拉响警报。   有色牛市扑面而来 套保盘摇摆不定   在国内欢度“十一”国庆节期间,伦敦金属市场的K线依旧牵动着有色市场投资者的心。期间伦锡先跌后涨,周内涨幅0.42%。收于20000美元 吨上方。   年初至今,有色金属捷报不断,沪锡“励志登场”,自从去年11月份的80000元 吨,一路涨至现在的129920元 吨,累计上涨49920元 吨,涨幅62.4%。期间,有色家族中铝、锌、镍期货价格涨幅也均在30%以上。   有色金属牛市扑面而来,A股板块不甘示弱。据中国证券报记者统计,自今年1月底的低点至今,同花顺有色冶炼板块年内涨幅达56%,远远跑赢大盘;同期,沪深300指数涨幅为15.3%;同花顺煤炭开采板块涨幅为35.2%;钢铁板块涨幅24.5%。   从个股来看,今年1月底至今,广晟有色涨幅83.4%;锡业股份涨幅34.6%;驰宏锌锗涨幅46.2%。中期来看,自大盘7月份调整以来,有色板块轮动不断,继8月2日�16日的连阳走势后,又在8月26日�9月6日发起小级别上涨行情。   方正证券在对驰宏锌锗的研报中称,二季度公司单季度营业利润8000万。二季度锌均价15119元 吨。当前价格在17000元 吨至18000元 吨震荡,若下半年均价在17000元 吨,下半年利润有望达到3.5亿元,业绩将大幅改善。考虑到公司享受金属价格弹性和国企改革预期,维持“推荐”投资评级。   不仅仅是国内,国际投行接连发声唱多金属价格。法国兴业银行((Societe Generale)预计,今年第四季度锡价平均水平在每吨18500美元。该行金属研究部主管Robin Bhar表示,“年底之前锡价很可能会涨至每吨20000美元。”   大行情下,今年以来,沪锡持仓量及成交量节节攀升。   一家锡生产企业负责人坦言,去年底,8万元的吨价一度让人感到绝望,12万元 吨的价格在当时不敢想象,现在却是很多人想买入的最佳价位。“这一轮的上涨幅度和速度大大超出了市场预期,一些企业停下了卖出套保,甚至开始投机押注多头行情。”   华东一家期货公司经纪业务人士李明(化名)透露,在有色金属今年以来的连番上涨行情中,金属锡表现不俗,迄今涨幅超过40%,产业链上的一些企业套保盘陷入混乱,典型的是一些应该卖出套保的头寸反手成为买盘。   “在有色金属产业,尤其是铜、铝等行业,几乎百分之百的企业都会看期货市场行情,但严格遵守套保规则的企业只有少数。这种现象普遍存在于大宗商品各个产业中。很多企业多多少少都有一定的投机行为。尤其是在一轮明显的趋势行情中,投机冒险的企业主会更多。”一位业内人称。   牛市勿忘初衷 警惕套保变投机   当资本成为市场不可或缺的力量时,无论从资金面还是信息面来说,传统企业都是弱者。中国农业大学期货与金融衍生品中心主任常清教授接受中国证券报记者采访时表示,企业做套保是必须的,这是管理风险的根本手段,一家不做套保的企业不可能做成百年老店。   但在期货市场的杠杆魅力下,一些企业套保偏离了初衷,迷失于投机中。   “今年锡价涨幅令许多人始料未及。市场上流传着各种小道消息,也刺激着锡从业者的神经。本来进行卖出套保的头寸变成了投机做多的头寸。”李明称。   李明告诉中国证券报记者,每当出现趋势性的大行情,就会出现一大批的入金客户,尤其是产业客户。一来,仗着对产业的熟悉,他们总认为自己在市场中的胜算会大一些。二来这些人通常“不差钱”,一次几十万甚至上百万元的入金很常见。“但是这些人身份特殊,他们往往还是企业的经营者或者直接管理者,个人输赢还在其次,如果在企业经营决策中放弃套保或者不完全套保,转向投机,风险很大。有时候甚至是一念定生死。”   一位“吃过亏”的铜企老板心痛地回忆称,自己曾经在一个较低价位投机做多沪铜。“当时铜价不到1920美元 吨,我觉得不可能再低了,就大举建仓,结果行情阴跌了很多天,最后不得不被强平。最后悔的是,企业本来应该做的现货卖出套保也没有做,结果损失巨大,期现双亏,资金链也出现了严重问题。”   “很多产业人做期货都是输在了自作聪明上面,以为自己非常了解市场。”他说。   无独有偶,一位曾供职期货公司营业部的“老期货”对中国证券报记者讲述了类似的故事:数年前,北方一家族继承人带着2亿元资金开户做期货,当时他认为自家企业在业内的地位足以操纵行情,结果很快就被场内的“聪明资金”盯上,期现配合,“关门打狗”;这位继承人带来的2亿元血本无归,交足了学费,立誓从此再不踏足期货交易。   企业参与资本市场投机导致巨亏的风险故事比比皆是,远有2004年中国航油(新加坡)股份有限公司因参与石油期货投机而亏损5.5亿美元,近有国内某棉企今年在棉花期货投机亏损6亿元,等等。   市场资深研究人士表示,一部分生产企业错位参与做多托市,也许是短期投机举动,但身为天然空头的上游企业高位不套保锁定利润反而冒险托价,其背后的风险不言而喻。在有色金属等商品期货牛市中,少数企业的期货操作常常丧失理性,与过分乐观的心理以及资金炒作氛围不无关系。   “该来的总要来,该走的总要走!”SMM中国锡行业交流平台分析师认为,目前锡市多头的优势正在弱化。前期,环保因素,缅甸供应拐点,冶炼厂资金面宽松、联合减产,经销商囤货较少,下游低迷按需采购、库存偏低等因素推助了前期锡价上涨;且沪锡盘子偏小,资金容易推波助澜。但价格快速上涨后,资金抽离,在下游行业需求没有改善的前提下,价格上涨刺激供应量扩大,最终市场价格走向,还是要看供应方面以及需求的改善。   “天然空头”并非不能做多   一家上市公司套保业务部门负责人坦言,公司整个期货部门只有自己一个人,套保计划和自己调配都是一人完成,计划的审批随意性较强。“跟领导口头打个招呼,就可以去划领资金了。套保部门成绩与现货部门经营成果分开考核。期货操作基本上是投机和套保掺着做。”   李明认为,很多公司对套保部门的功能理解并不深刻,甚至将其当作投资部门追求盈利,这样就从根本上扭曲了套保的功能。“一些上市公司套保部门的盈利成绩甚至直接和奖金挂钩。这助长了投机的风气。而一些由于期货投机造成的亏损甚至在财报中常常被记在套保的头上。”   对于此类问题的解决,李明表示,企业套保需要三方面的保障:从决策到执行的制度保障;套保方案的研究审核;过程中的监控体系,责任到人。   但值得注意的是,在金石期货研究所投资咨询部主管黄李强看来,并不是所有的“反向操作”都是纯粹的投机。在两种常见的情况下,作为天然空头一方的企业可以通过做多获利。   一种是期货价格远远贴水于现货,而生产企业又有定价权的时候,生产企业可在期货市场买入生产产品,赚取稳定收益。“通常现货价格运行稳定,而期货市场往往由于非理性因素出现超跌,因此期货价格大多是向现货价格的方向回归的,因此这个时候生产企业做多期货获利的期货是为正的。”第二种情况是,生产企业预期未来现货价格会上涨,但是出于各种原因又不能大规模的囤货,因此在期货市场中买入期货,将现货库存置换成期货库存的方法。“这种操作通常发生在远月合约上,企业可用较少成本进行囤货。等到后期期货价格上涨,生产企业了结头寸赚取利润。当然,进行这种操作的时候,企业不但没有对冲掉风险,反而加大了风险敞口,如果企业预期错误,后期现货价格大幅下挫,那么企业不但在现货上面临损失,在期货市场上也将遭受损失。”黄李强指出。 (责编:范晓琳、马玲玲)相关的主题文章: