Haitong Jiang Chao China’s economy relies heavily on real estate must be vigilant foam w32dasm


Haitong Jiang Chao: China’s economy is heavily dependent on the real estate bubble must be alert to burst? Abstract: since 16 years of China’s real estate market reproduction hot, causing the real estate bubble burst concerns. So once the real estate bubble burst, economic, monetary and financial markets will be how to behave? The specific segments of the industry are in a complete mess? This report summarizes international experience to explore these issues. Economic performance: sluggish demand, industry differentiation. Investment plunged, the industry has different. After the real estate bubble burst, Japan’s residential investment growth fell to -4.5% in 92 years, the United States fell to about -24% in 09 years. Other investment in the private sector will soon be affected, the United States, Japan, the United States and corporate equipment investment growth fell from 16% and at the peak of the bubble fell to -10% and -22% lows. However, sub sectors, the real estate industry related to serious investment decline, rather than durable goods and services industry investment, such as food, education, health care and other relatively light. Consumption reduction, type differentiation. 90-91 Japan and South Korea real estate bubble has burst, bringing the growth rate of consumption diving, respectively, from 90 to 7.7% and 10.1% to 93 years of 2.1% and 6.4%. However, from the impact of the degree of view, durable goods consumption is greater than non durable goods, commodity consumption is greater than the impact of service. Employment slump. After the real estate bubble burst, the unemployment rate soared, but non cyclical industry is better than cyclical industry. Residents, businesses are expected to be pessimistic, deflation becomes a bubble economy after the opening of the characteristics. Credit market: Loan diving, banking crisis. Credit plunged, weak recovery. From the beginning of the United States, the pressure of repayment of loans to residents gradually emerged, mortgage growth continued to decline, 09 years of loan growth were significantly diving and negative. After 91 years of the Japanese real estate bubble burst, the total amount of corporate credit fell sharply, only after 2000 to stabilize the low, the growth rate of the residents of credit also fell significantly, but the magnitude is less than the corporate sector. The main difference between Japan and the United States is that its companies use more credit expansion to invest in stocks and real estate, so after the bubble burst corporate credit shrink much more serious. From the industry perspective, the impact of non cyclical industry credit is relatively small. Rising defaults, banking crisis. Falling house prices, poor economy, resulting in the deterioration of the bank balance sheet, profit diving, the emergence of closures. Such as the collapse of the United States in and the number of rescue banks were 0, 3, 30, 148, 157, and the whole of the Japanese banking industry in 90s, low efficiency, profitability can not be delayed. In order to reduce the risk of bank credit crunch, choice, form a vicious spiral. Financial markets: the stock market differentiation, bond bull. The stock market differentiation, IPO cold. Japan and the United States stock market crash occurred in the post bubble era, but the long-term fate is different: the Nikkei 225 from 89 years of nearly 40 thousand points after the crash, until now the point is still less than half the time; the S & P 500 index after the crash, the current point has reached a 07 year high of nearly 1.5 times. U.S. – Japan stock market differentiation is because the United States after the bursting of the real estate bubble in a timely manner to rescue the bank, to protect its financing function theory相关的主题文章: